This blog originally founded by Blogger who holds a theological degree and a doctorate in Counseling Psychology. Taught Psychology for 32 years and is now Professor Emeritus. Is a board-certified psychologist and was awarded the Lifetime Achievement Award in his profession. Ministered as a chaplain, and pastored Baptist and Episcopal churches. Publications cover the integration of psychology and theology. Served in the Army, the Merchant Marines and the Peace Corps.

Monday, November 1, 2010

Final Predictions, Wish Lists and Live Blogging

Anyone who has yet to make a prediction in our midterm contest has until 5:00PM tomorrow (Tuesday, Nov. 2) to do so. That's before most polls close so we'll let it go until then. The prize is your own thread on any subject (within reason). Commenter Sarkazein predicted the results will not be known until January and he may be right. It's still not too late for him to revise the prediction with some numbers but he does bring to notice a potential problem. Some results may not be known for a bit, that may affect when we can announce a winner.

For rules and to participate, click the "Midterm Contest" page found in the left margin of the main page. Or here.

While we can still hope, it might be fun to weigh in on a top 3 (or so) individual races. I'll go first, my top three hopes for change (majorities aside):

I hope Allen West in Florida wins.
I hope Barney Frank Loses.
I hope Barbara Boxer Loses.

I would also like to extend an invitation to everyone to weigh in often tomorrow night for some live blogging as the results come in.

38 comments:

Honest Debate said...

Most of the attention has been focused on the U.S. Senate and House races. Blogger has made sure we kept up with State politics as well which are especially important in a redistricting year. Maybe some baseline numbers are in order.

U.S. Senate:
Republicans - 40
Democrats - 58
Independents - 2

U.S. House:
Republicans - 178
Democrats - 257

Governors:
Republicans - 23
Democrats - 26
Independents - 1

State Legislatures:
Democratic-controlled - 27
Republican-controlled - 14
Split Legislatures - 8
Officially nonpartisan (Nebraska)- 1

Honest Debate said...

I admit it, I voted for two Democrats this morning. No, it wasn't Billy Kennedy and Elaine Marshall.

I voted for Ben Hines as Register of Deeds (Alexander County). It's a non-partisan race and his party was not even listed. One of my hobbies is researching old deeds of property I live on and near. I've gotten to know Ben Hines and he's a good man. He's also a Democrat.

I voted for Danny Dyson for Clerk of Court. Same story, the Courthouse has the old wills and special proceedings. Mr. Dyson as Deputy clerk has always been helpful and seems to get the fact that I'm his boss even when I know I've been a nuisance. This race did list party and I voted Democrat.

Every one else I voted for (save one Libertarian) was a Republican.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone else see the news that Watauga County gets a positive audit as being suspicious, coming out on election day and all?

Sarkazein said...

H.D- I made my predictions. Did it say in the rules if the amount of gains are actually sworn in to office, or is this the number of projected/declared winners prior to recounts and lawsuits?

Honest Debate said...

Sark,

I hoping the latter. I don't think it will matter much in the House because the victory should be substantial. The Senate may be different if it comes down to one close race. I'm rootin' for the John Kerry scenario (even he knew he could not challenge Ohio) as opposed to the Algore model.

Your missing something though. After the lawsuits and fraud attempts, just when we think we have it... Olympia Snowe will flip. Then Republican's will suck up to Lieberman to caucus with them. Mitch McConnell will be mowing Ben Nelson's lawn.

Seriously, I'll settle for concession speeches as the final word and won't wait until the swearing in ceremonies. If there are a number of races still up in the air then with any luck we can still declare a winner based on mathematical impossibilities. If that doesn't work we'll just have to wait. If we still don't know by January, you win.

guy faulkes said...

I have already made my prediction so it would be unfair to increase the number of House seats the Republicans will take now.

I want O'Donnell to win.
I want Angle to win.
I want the Republicans to sweep the Watauga County Commission. (I know I cheated. Call it a liberal moment.)

HD, I commend you on your actions. I used to support and campaign for John Bingham. John was that rarity, a conservative Democrat politician and the best Clerk of Court that ever lived.

Anonymous said...

6 comments
felixw says:
November 2, 2010 at 5:50 pm
2 1
Eight Reasons the Democrats Will Give for Their Huge Defeat in the Election of 2010

1. 20% of the electorate became racists over the last two years.

2. Liberals wanted to reduce their carbon footprint, and decided to stay home today.

3. The same Fox News employees who “staged” the tea parties are now impersonating voters.

4. Not enough dead people on the voting rolls to offset the Republican turnout.

5. Christine O’Donnell put a witch’s spell on the women’s vote, and turned them into Republicans.

6. Not enough Black Panther party members to ensure fair voting at the polling places.

7. All the people whose jobs were created or “saved” by the stimulus bill are too busy at work to get to the polling place.

8. Blame Bush!

Sarkazein said...

Good one felixw!

Sarkazein said...

H.D- I would love to see your "substantial victory", but I for one have lost faith in the voting process. Lawyers, political operatives, uninformed groups of paid for and bussed voters, recounts....
I hope you prove me wrong.

NewGuy said...

I know this is off topic for this thread, but - before I leave for the evening, I wanted to say this.

Democracy wouldn't work without people of all opinions, political persuasion and all walks of life participating.

Thanks in particular to those of you who have offered yourselves as candidates - Republican, Democrat or Other - for your willingness to sacrifice yourselves, your time, money, and, in many respects, your privacy for the good of the causes you believe in.

THANK YOU ALL for your willingness to put yourselves 'on the line'!

We are all better off because you were part of this great process!

Honest Debate said...

Sark,

Yea, I just looked at your prediction. You've definitely lost faith in the voting process but don't loose faith in the power of the people... yet.

I'm afraid to buy in to heavily but I'm getting more comfortable with the idea. I notice the media and the Democrats all raising expectations to the point where they can call anything a disappointment so I don't believe the sky high numbers but I hope I'm wrong. I hope you are too. We will see.

Reader said...

I couldn't vote straight ticket for local candidates, but did so for state. There were a couple of people running, I didn't think cut the mustard, HD. The rest of the conservatives, got my vote.

My wish is for a massive "conservative" victory.
I also wish the new leaders will discover some dignity within themselves and use it - daily.
I wish Delaware had nominated someone other than O'Donnell.
I wish Obamacare to be repealed.
I wish mostly that we will be the "United States of America" - again.

Honest Debate said...

Reader,

I'll drink to that!

I'm going to wait a couple hours though.

Honest Debate said...

Rand Paul wins! That's our first tea partier of the night. The one who wasn't supposed to have a chance six months ago.

Is he a pick up for the Senate? I don't think so. But Dan Coates in Indiana is.

Reader said...

Oh go ahead and have a drink each time a conservative candidate wins HD. This is going to be a victorious night!

Sarkazein said...

Cigar at 8 PM central. Win or lose. Also a Tyrconnell or two.

Honest Debate said...

Well Reader, I have had some supper now and I'm feeling pretty good about it so maybe a toddy is in order. I can't have one every time a Republican wins though. Maybe back in the day. Nowadays I get sleepy easily.

Blumenthal in Connecticut and Coons in Delaware both won. No surprise but Blumenthal really is a small, weasily lying girly man. I hate it. I think O'Donnell got screwed by the Republican establishment and could have won with more support. I would have voted for her in the primary over Castle and would not have regretted my vote even with Coons winning. Castle was supposedly a shoe in but does anyone really know that?

oatz said...

Foxx has 66% of early vote!!

Honest Debate said...

West Virginia just went Democrat and that hurts chances of Republicans taking the Senate. If we were going to have a super-duper ultra stomp the thud would have probably taken the WV, DE and CT Senate seats with it. However, the House seems to still be chugging just fine.

Manchin was very popular in WV and he had to make an ad with him shooting a bullet through the cap and trade bill. He ran as far from Obama as he could and it worked for him.

Honest Debate said...

Dare I say it? It's hard to trust Pennsylvania. The polls look good for Toomey but it's Pennsylvania. West Virginia reminds me of that.

Honest Debate said...

Fire it up Sark.

oatz said...

US House just switched to republican control.

Sarkazein said...

Looks like Pelosi will be flying commercial from now on. That in itself will cut the deficit.

Sarkazein said...

Keep proving me wrong HD, I am enjoying it.
This cigar was made in League City Texas by Cuban exiles. Senator Marco Rubio from the great state of Florida.

Honest Debate said...

Barney Frank wins so 1 of my 3 hopes are dashed, still waiting on Allen West and Fiorina.

NBC is projecting 58 Republican pick ups in the House and Fox 61. Sweet!

Reader said...

Did you not read where I said "victorious", Sark? Have a little faith big guy. We've got some celebrating to do and some money to make. Time to buy some stuff and get this economy going.

Pelosi not returning? Thank goodness I get to look at John now and he's a nice looking man. God is good to us guys, be thankful...and pray the newly elected candidates will live up to what we expect of them. If not, we'll get rid of them too.

If I were a winner tonight, I wouldn't do any interviews with the media who were biased against me. I'd only do interviews with the ones that were fair. They could kiss my fanny.

Reader said...

Another thing if I may?

Congratulations Conservative Winners! You are good people, that's why you got voted in. Make everyone proud of your decisions and don't embarrass us, please.

What did Blogger do, leave his laptop at home? We need to fire him...didn't keep us updated. He's probably out partying somewhere.

Honest Debate said...

I bet the DOW goes up tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Helicopter Ben is going to announce QE2 tomorrow. Maybe the DOW and gold will shoot through the roof tomorrow!

Honest Debate said...

Boxer wins. Damn.

Anonymous said...

Yes, I find it very interesting that the County audit report came out at this time and with those suspicious numbers.

Personally, I think the County needs to be thoroughly audited, ALL departments, and most certainly with a new auditor, preferably from outside the county.

Sarkazein said...

What's the prize for being the furthest off?

Sarkazein said...

The Nevada election is hinky.

Mike D. said...

Sark,

I thought you were doing The Price Is Right thing and bidding one dollar. :-P

Reader said...

Anon, I can't agree with you on the auditor. He's a good man, good accountant and a great friend. I trust him wholeheartedly.

Honest Debate said...

I was only 1 for 3 on my hope. Frank and Boxer won but so did Allen West.

Reid stomped Angle and that sucks.

Stay tuned for results of the contest. We still have some votes to count out west.

Honest Debate said...

As of now Republicans are +6 and there are 3 Senate seats still in question: Washington, Colorado and Alaska. WA and CO are neck and neck. Alaska has Murkowski up but there will need to be a hand count and military ballots should come into play in a big way. We are dangerously close to commenter Jack winning.

In the House we're up 60 with 12 still undecided.

Anonymous said...

Reader, he may be a nice man and your friend, etc, but still we need another auditor. He's been doing this job for years.

The County needs a thorough audit of all departments, etc, from another impartial firm.

Can't you understand that? There is nothing personal here. 'Just looking towards the best interests of the County and the taxpayers.

'Don't know how others may feel, but I am tired of the County over the last several years arbitrarily using our taxes and indebting us tremendously for the benefit of themselves, their friends, and powerful special interests.