Reader Jack responded to the following post American People Believe“Blogger, are you implying that a public opinion poll that does not follow or support your ideology is simply due to uninformed participants? Or participants who are, in some way, deficient? Are you implying
that when the poll shows a contrary view to yours, you innately know better?”
Jack’s observations were worthy of response, especially when he went on to observe that we publish polls. Anyway, not wanting to have the above post go off track, I decided to set up a new post for this discussion.
Here is my response: Jack, I try to use the polls the same way the White House does. Post the ones that raise morale of the troops on this blog. Ignore the others. (I may not have been 100% consistent.)
At the same time, I do have questions about polling in general. I could not find a real study on the question of polling, however this left wing blog was thoughtful. Whats wrong with polling
26 comments:
Jack, if you noticed in the post that set you off I said I have problems with polls that are counter intuitive. You did force me to do something I really don’t have the time for and that was to look at the Gallup Poll that I think you reference. Sure enough, all my suspicions were confirmed, especially that the people thought they were being asked if they thought successful people’s taxes should be raised. Surprise, surprise, they answered “yes.”
Blogger, given your new position on public opinion polls, does that not make every poll moot? You stated:
”There is only one legitimate time a person can say ‘the American people believe’ and that is on election day.”
With that view, all polls are inherently trivial and useless. Just a couple days ago, New Guy posted a Civitas poll and stated:
”NC Legislature has voted with the people”
Do you not take issue with his claim then, that “the people” are being spoken for in a generalized way? Although you now seem to abhor that idea, you have not spoken against New Guy’s words. Furthermore, you seem to have a healthy skepticism concerning polls that do not support your views. Skepticism of methodology is a good thing, don’t get me wrong. But (1) your skepticism is unfortunately absent when the poll supports your views and (2) you claim inadequacies that may only exist in your head (including claiming an idea “goes against common sense”).
Back to that Civitas poll, your own tactics and ideological skepticism can be applied. It states that 56% of voters support the act in question. But of those polled, are they mainly male? Elderly or otherwise past an age of giving birth? Are they health care workers? Do they pay their taxes? Are they educated? Etc etc etc. It seems as though your answer to a poll that does not support your position is simply “I don’t believe it.”
Delving even deeper into the issue is a point that I believe is the most vile and reeks of elitism. I asked how you would respond to a poll that showed support for an idea contrary to your own, after the methodologies had been shown to be solid. Your answer:
”Jack I would probably respond with , ‘We got a lot of people in this country that spend too much time watching Jersey Shore and reading National Inquirer.’ People paying attention realize...”
You automatically discount your fellow citizens’ opinion, implying that they are either (1) not intelligent enough to know the correct answer, or (2) they simply aren’t “paying attention”. I asked you a very straightforward question, which was subsequently ignored, “Where and how do you draw the line between your "your opinion counts, yours does not" mentality?” How do you choose which Americans no longer have voice in our country? Which Americans no longer matter to you?
But I think you said it all yourself, quite succinctly, “I...Post the ones that raise morale of the troops on this blog. Ignore the others.”
Wow.
Here’s the Gallup Poll. How were “[your] suspicions confirmed”?
Note that even of Republicans, 67% want a deal that includes both spending cuts and tax increases in some form, and only 26% want only spending cuts.
And here is the survey question with available answers, verbatim:
As you may know, Congress can reduce the federal budget deficit by cutting spending, raising taxes, or a combination of the two. Ideally, how would you prefer to see Congress attempt to reduce the federal budget deficit – [ROTATED: only with spending cuts, mostly with spending cuts, equally with spending cuts and tax increases, mostly with tax increases, (or) only with tax increases]?
But you’ll probably continue to say, “I don’t believe”. Surprise, surprise.
Jack, "But I think you said it all yourself, quite succinctly, “I...Post the ones that raise morale of the troops on this blog. Ignore the others.”"
You are an excellent reader.
Jack Here is who put over the top, this totally incompetent man in the White House: Obama Supporter
I rest my case.
Jack, As to the Gallup Poll, I don't think I read the poll the same as you. In fact I don't even believe I read the results as same as Gallup. The numbers don't support the conclusions. However, because this is not a poll that rallys the troops, I am not going to spend any more time debating.
Give me a poll that will make me happy.
Blogger
“I...Post the ones that raise morale of the troops on this blog. Ignore the others.”"
This is very telling and confirms what I continue to post.
Republicans are very effective with the use of scapegoats, confirming stereotypes, prejudices and myths but unable to do simple math, logical thinking, problem sloving, reality or deal with actual facts.
Wapner 3:00
Blogger, it is not my intention to debate the Gallup poll. My intent is to understand the dichotomy of your rhetoric. However, you stated that your “suspicions were confirmed” in regards to the poll. I simply asked how. No answer.
You have also ignored every one of my main points:
1) Your most recent statements make all public opinion polls trivial, so why quote them at all (as you are oft to do)?
2) If you have to “restrain yourself” when someone generalizes the findings of a poll to the populace, why have you not taken issue with what New Guy wrote in his July 29th post?
3) Based on your elitist rhetoric, you seem to think some Americans don’t deserve to have a voice in our government. Who are these Americans? How do you choose them?
“Government of the people, by the people, for the people” --Abraham Lincoln..........do you see “unless you don’t agree with me” in there? Because I don’t.
1) Your most recent statements make all public opinion polls trivial, so why quote them at all (as you are oft to do)?-Jack
Jack- All your comments on this subject have been rule by the poll. That my Canadian friend is NOT "government by the people and for the people".
Point #1: Then why quote polls at all? Blogger loves polls (as long as they agree with him), but now he seems to think they're useless. Why?
What does the Socialist handbook say he should he be allowed to quote?
I quote Obama sometimes... that's worthless.
"3) Based on your elitist rhetoric, you seem to think some Americans don’t deserve to have a voice in our government. Who are these Americans? How do you choose them?"- Jack
There's a laugh, eh?
Typical Liberal, doesn't understand speaking for one's self and not a group. If the poll asks "should a group of other people pay higher taxes" and it is represented as I want to pay higher taxes, it sounds like fingernails on a chalk board.
I wouldn't say all polls are completely useless; I would say most polls are completely useless and all polls are mostly useless.
The sinister part is when news organizations make poll results news in an effort to shape public opinion. The wording, phrasing, leading assumptions, samples, demographics used and even the order of questions are huge variables. It's a scamming pollster's dream.
I don't need to know what others think to have my own opinions. Unfortunately for the country, many do. Sheep.
An honest poll has some merit. The problem is that you have to know what the questions are and how they are asked to determine if the poll is honest. As has been said, there is a big difference in Do you want HIS taxes raised and do you want YOUR taxes raised.
Another problem is whether the poll represents a true cross section of the people and if these people were chosen randomly. If it does not or was not, the poll is useless.
It all depends on why the poll was taken and who took it. Some polls are taken to actually find out what people think. Others are taken to try to promote a political point.
I have been polled on several occasions. The questions have ranged from middle of the road variety that were used to gather relevant data to those that asked leading questions to one that asked questions of the have you quit beating your wife variety. The last was one in which the questions you were asked varied as to your response to previous answers. I know because a friend of mine was polled by the same people, for the same poll,and was asked different questions than was I as the poll progressed. I have hired pollsters in the past, and it is sometimes hard to find one that is competent to get you results on which you can rely.
I have found Rasmussen to be superior to Gallup in their methodology and both to be superior to most pollsters for hire.
Pollsters can give a client pretty much whatever the client is looking for.
A client who wants an accurate picture of how his customers view his product can get that information with a high degree of accuracy.
If, on the other hand, the client wants to indicate that "2 out of 3 doctors who smoke, smoke camels" can get that info too.
I think it is probably pretty likely that a slight majority of Americans, in an honest poll, would probably support a "balanced" approach to handling the debt. I know I would...
The balance I would like to see is a reduction in spending along with the implementation of the Fair Tax.
Again, my intention is not to debate a singular poll. If the methodologies are solid, then it is a valid poll, no matter who the pollster (Rasmussen, Gallup, or some guy named Steve).
The issue is Blogger’s reaction to a valid poll that shows his view is in the minority. Neo-cons have built their ideology on three basic principles: small government that is responsive to the people, personal freedom and limited regulation. The whole platform lends itself to some interesting contradictions. But apparently, Blogger no longer believes the first point. When a valid public opinion poll shows that the people do not agree with Blogger’s idea, he admittedly ignores it. So much for the people.
So Blogger, why have you abandoned this discussion as you did the other? You have completely ignored my main points:
1) Your most recent statements make all public opinion polls trivial, so why quote them at all (as you are oft to do)? 2) If you have to “restrain yourself” when someone generalizes the findings of a poll to the populace, why have you not taken issue with what New Guy wrote in his July 29th post? 3) Based on your elitist rhetoric, you seem to think some Americans don’t deserve to have a voice in our government. Who are these Americans? How do you choose them?
And I’ll add a fourth: As you now hate when people generalize a poll to the population, not only must you be annoyed with New Guy’s July 29th post, but HD must be furious with you. You admittedly ignore valid public opinion polls that show support for ideas contrary to your own and only post polls that “raise morale of the troops on this blog”. That’s not even close to honest debate. And since that’s what HD purports himself to be all about, he must be inconsolable.
"Neo-cons have built their ideology on three basic principles: small government that is responsive to the people, personal freedom and limited regulation."-Jack
The Founders were Neo-cons... who knew? I'm proud to be a Neo-con and not a socialist eh?
Blogger- There is no way to explain it more clearly than you have to Jack. He just cannot comprehend it. This is all foreign to him.
Jack, If we debated you could there be any chance we could win you over to “small government that is responsive to the people, personal freedom and limited regulation?"
I'm just trying to understand your dichotomous rhetoric:
1) Your most recent statements make all public opinion polls trivial, so why quote them at all (as you are oft to do)?
2) If you have to “restrain yourself” when someone generalizes the findings of a poll to the populace, why have you not taken issue with what New Guy wrote in his July 29th post?
3) Based on your elitist rhetoric, you seem to think some Americans don’t deserve to have a voice in our government. Who are these Americans? How do you choose them?
Blogger
"Jack, If we debated you could there be any chance we could win you over to “small government that is responsive to the people, personal freedom and limited regulation?"
Conservatives are for personal freedom???
Why do they want to restrict abortion rights?
Why were conservatives opposing the Mosque?
Why do conservatives support the current drug laws?
Why did conservatives support torture?
Why did conservatives support holding fellow human being without a hearing or trial?
Why do conservatives oppose the ACLU?
Jack,
There must first be a debate for there to be honest debate.
Lame.
CNN conducted a poll that found 66% of Americans supported "Cut, Cap and Balance". They didn't report their own poll.
HD-The important point being CNN didn't report it. This is why I don't completely blame the Republicans in this "debt crisis" thing. They are up against the Senate, the President, and the Press and the near half of the people who don't pay any income tax. I think it insurmountable.
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