This blog originally founded by Blogger who holds a theological degree and a doctorate in Counseling Psychology. Taught Psychology for 32 years and is now Professor Emeritus. Is a board-certified psychologist and was awarded the Lifetime Achievement Award in his profession. Ministered as a chaplain, and pastored Baptist and Episcopal churches. Publications cover the integration of psychology and theology. Served in the Army, the Merchant Marines and the Peace Corps.

Sunday, April 27, 2014

Why THIS Primary Vote is EXTRA IMPORTANT

There are several races on this years Primary ballots which have 3 or more candidates. Should any of these contenders fail to receive at least 40% of the votes cast....a second primary election - a runoff between the
top two candidates - could be called for by the second place finisher.

To be eligible to vote in any runoff election, you must have already voted in the same  party's May primary!

OK..Lets examine that again.....and lets look at a few numbers.

In the 2012 Watauga primaries, slightly over 15,000 votes were cast  7191 of those were Republican ballots. This means then, that only 7191 voters in Watauga county were ELIGIBLE to cast a Republican ballot in the runoff election. Of this number only 105 voters showed up to cast the votes which decided a number of candidates for the General Election. (For Dems the numbers were 6421 eligible to vote in the runoff and 76 who actually voted)

But, that was an "Off Year"!

True enough...the 2012 runoff primaries were  for some down ballot races, not very sexy stuff for the average voter. This year should be substantially different with some very important races likely headed for a runoff. Probably most people are of the opinion that, with 7 candidates still on the Republican ballot for the US Senate, a runoff is extremely likely. This, in turn, could mean that  a very few people will actually decide the GOP nominee for this race - in my opinion probably one of the most important races in the country! We are likely to have higher percentage turnouts for a runoff primary than we did on 2012, but still it is a small group of voters who will probably turn out for a second primary AND this small group will have a huge impact on the 2015 NC Political scene.

Tillis is widely expected to "win" the May primary but polling seems to indicate that he will  likely not achieve the 40 % necessary to avoid a runoff. As our readers know, this US Senate race  in NC  may well be the race that decides if the US Senate will continue under Harry Reid's agenda or if Republicans will gain control of the Senate and perhaps slow the Reid Race to Disaster down.

And, on the Democrat side......

The Democrat ballot has the 5th District primary as the "race to watch"....(Kay Hagan is almost certain to avoid a runoff in the 3 person US Senate race for the Democrat nomination.) The 5th District race has 4 Democrats seeking the honor of being embarrassed by Virginia Foxx in the November elections. Our bet here is that Will Stinson of Yadkin County may well end up going head to head with Gardenia Henley of Forsyth County. Stinson seems to be saying that he is running because nobody else more qualified would run (“I was hoping somebody more established would run but nobody stepped forward so I decided to run. We have to challenge her on issues,” he said. ) Other Dem candidates are Wilkes county teacher Michael Holeman and Watauga resident Josh Brannon. Neither is thought of as a serious contender but either (or both) could easily force this race to a runoff.

(The local Watauga Dem machine seems to be pushing the Brannon candidacy ....we are uncertain if this a serious effort on their part or just a conciliatory move to keep Brannon "in the fold"....In either case, Brannon's Watauga vote tally will be interesting to watch and may offer some insight into to effectiveness of the local Dem party's GOTV effort.) Brannon has been quoted as saying " I have nothing to lose from this"....probably not too bad a campaign slogan.

(Brannon had initially filed to run against Dan Soucek for District 93 State Senate but later withdrew that filing and refiled for the 5th District seat)

One thing is clear.

Any serious Get Out The Vote Effort has to begin now - for the May primaries. Voting in this primary is essential to remain eligible to vote in any likely Runoff Election July 15. Both parties will likely target unaffiliated voters to pull their party ballot.




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