This blog originally founded by Blogger who holds a theological degree and a doctorate in Counseling Psychology. Taught Psychology for 32 years and is now Professor Emeritus. Is a board-certified psychologist and was awarded the Lifetime Achievement Award in his profession. Ministered as a chaplain, and pastored Baptist and Episcopal churches. Publications cover the integration of psychology and theology. Served in the Army, the Merchant Marines and the Peace Corps.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Republicans Not in Death Spiral

    A Democrat book reviewed in  the Wall Street Journal, turns out to be very revealing for our side. As you know, the country is going bankrupt, entitlement programs run out of money very shortly, our health system is going under, our military has been so reduced that we are vulnerable and we have lost our leadership and respect in the world. You also know that in this environment, Democrats are running on lowball offerings-- extend kindergarten, raise the minimum wage and other little tidbits for their constituencies.

Democrats apparently feel they don’t have to offer anything because they are counting on demographics. "The Republican Party, the writer says, is in a "death spiral," beholden to shrinking constituencies, out of sync with the "ascendants"—blacks, Hispanics, Asians, single women, millennials—who will produce increasing Democratic victory margins."

But then the writer admits
that Republican victories also owe a lot to uneven demographics. Democratic voters are clustered in central cities, sympathetic suburbs and university towns, and those clusters are large enough to guarantee them about 170 electoral votes. Republican voters are spread more evenly around the rest of the country. This gives Republicans an edge in congressional and legislative districts. In 2012 Mitt Romney carried 226 congressional districts and Mr. Obama only 209 and Obama only won by 51% of the vote.

The writer even admits that although certain heavily Democratic groups are growing faster than the national average, black populations are not growing. So it is very unlikely they will come out like they did for the first black president. Looking at Rubio and Cruz, we might also expect that second generation Hispanics will split more evenly. And in 2012 Baby Boomers left the Democrats and voted for Mr. Romney.

Another fact that has not been emphasized is that overall voter turnout has been declining during the Obama presidency (unlike the George W. Bush presidency). And there was lower Democratic turnout. Mr. Obama won 3.5 million fewer votes in 2012 than in 2008. Even so, Democrats currently have a demographic edge but Republicans have a discontentment edge. Even the best pollsters have trouble projecting turnout.

Take heart folks, the fat lady has not finished singing yet.

1 comment:

Will said...

Lies, damn lies and statistics. Just like us common folk, no one have a clue. Just depends on which horse they are backing as to their viewpoint.